Israel and the Flying Robot Assassins

Growing up in an Israeli household meant we traveled there often to see family. We went everywhere: to the south to Mitzpeh Ramon, to hike in the northern Galilee, and drop notes in the Western Wall.

Things I remember: sweating along the beaches of Tel Aviv, discovering I’m a weak-lunged person with borderline asthma while camping, and the twitchy impatience and rudeness of Israelis.

I also remember driving into the West Bank, my uncle packing a Desert Eagle in his holster. We’d stop off at pop-up tents and eat freshly baked pita with olive oil prepared by Arab women. This was years before the wall, the checkpoints, and the suicide bombings that terrorized the entire country during the Second Intifada.

During my year abroad in Italy in ‘03, I made a quick flight to Israel for a few weeks. It was eerie to be out in public. You looked over your shoulder on the street. You sized up everyone who walked into a restaurant and sat in a corner, far away from the entrance, far away from the blast zone. The nails and shrapnel won’t reach me here.

Hundreds of citizens were killed by human wrecking balls between 2000-2005. From cafes to buses to train stations, the threat was palpable. The economy and tourism ground to a halt. Prime Ministers came and went. There was no playbook for countering something so sinister.

Israel’s response, I’m learning in Rise and Kill First, was complex: a streamlined intelligence apparatus that gathered and shared data between the military departments. A Joint War Room was installed, where teams of soldiers worked efficiently and effectively to prevent more terror attacks. How’d they do it?

Targeted Assassination

The process is pretty simple. Mass surveillance in Gaza and the West Bank with high-tech drones. Collect and extract relevant data. ID and verify the connected suspect. Then call the Air Force and bomb from above. Get surgical or get nasty, depending on how many people they need to hit.

Flying robot assassins doing Israel’s dirty work sounds crazy, but that’s what happened. And it worked, in a sense. It was so effective that after 9/11, Donald Rumsfeld prodded the Israelis and Ariel Sharon, PM at the time: “We need help. How do you convert intelligence into targeted killing operations?” By that time, Israel was running and gunning four or five operations a day. The net effect was many terrorists were killed. Suicide attacks went down. Eventually, a (temporary) ceasefire was struck between Hamas and Israel. Hamas likely dug underground during that phase and developed a tunnel network that’s key to their fighting and survival today.

A few responded YES to hearing my thoughts on Israel right now, hence this post. I can’t sum it up nicely. My thoughts keep shifting as the weeks go by. They went something like this:

October: Depression, anger, and disappointment. Strange desire to do pushups, train, and condition my body for something.

November: Vengeance, fear, and horror. I quit social media, felt amazing and distanced, then felt angry when local synagogues were getting defaced with swastikas.

December and January: Pride, shame, frustration, exhaustion. Blasted Israeli music at home most days. 

The short short: this is unequivocally the worst-case scenario for all involved. No big shock there. The brutal scale of the Oct 7 massacre, and Israel’s emotional and defensive-driven response against Hamas, was beyond normal. That’s what makes it so shocking - there’s nothing to compare it to. 

But context helps us make sense of reality, especially when reality is beyond our imagination. 

Netanyahu set the stage of good vs. evil, an easy to accept convention. And he went on TV and stated a goal that he still repeats: “We won’t stop until we achieve complete victory and dismantle Hamas.” (He didn’t go on to accept any responsibility for an attack that happened under his watch. That would ruin his political standing and ego.)

I fully agree that Hamas should be entirely dismantled and destroyed. Kill them all. But that can’t be the only goal. The goal is some type of calm after the storm. And I don’t think you can bomb an entire country into a new belief system. 

Hamas is an ideological and fundamentalist movement. Every missile that lands in Gaza is another recruitment tool. One of the reasons I think Israel’s intelligence missed the attack, or failed to see it properly, is because they couldn’t and can’t infiltrate Hamas with their same espionage tactics. In other words, they couldn’t recruit spies effectively. The movement, and the men, of Hamas, will likely live on.

When Netanyahu says confidently ‘We will win this!’ he’s selling a political slogan, not a sound military strategy.

My prediction

Right now Israel wants to engage and fight again in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. That’s close to the Egyptian border and vital Philadelphia Crossing, an outlet where supplies and goods flow through. It’s also an opening for fighters to slip through.

My gut says that Israel won’t rattle Egypt and press them to enforce their border with Gaza, which would risk jeopardizing their long-standing treaty. Hamas leaders and fighters will seize the advantage and escape out of the Strip, possibly with hostages in tow. Israel will likely fight its way through Rafah, and will then get bogged down in a deeper military occupation.

Best case scenario? Local Gazans grow vocal and stand against Hamas, building some type of interim structure to manage the influx of humanitarian aid distributed from Israeli-controlled safe zones.

Fast forward to spring. Biden, who’s facing an upcoming election and under heavy domestic pressure to call for a ceasefire, will press Netanyahu to slow the war. If the IDF killed all the Hamas fighters they can kill, and they don’t find all the hostages, their options are limited. Their easiest card to play is to rescue them with a prisoner swap. And with each passing day, that price goes higher. So they’ll negotiate with Hamas, the enemies they vowed to kill, negotiating with their leaders who sit comfortably in a five-star Qatari hotel or uncomfortably underground. With none of the stated goals met, the Israeli public pushes for a lopsided deal.

 Israel has to deal with the loss, their PR image is badly damaged, and many in the government step down or get booted out. They reflect and reassess their next move.

And it’s only a matter of time before another outbreak of war happens.

The only certainty is that there are none.

But history has valuable and hopeful lessons to teach us, even during a shitty, bloody time like this. 

I’m hopeful because, after the bloody 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Israel was blitzed by her Arab enemies and lost thousands of soldiers, a peace deal was eventually signed between Egypt and Jordan. Big ups to Jimmy Carter for overseeing that one! Somehow, courageous leaders stepped up to sacrifice and be flexible with their convictions. War does that. It was a big deal.

In their own words:

Jimmy Carter: "The courage of the participants, the achievements that were made, are a proud chapter in the history of diplomacy."

Anwar Sadat of Egypt: "We hope this will be a turning point, a major turning point in the history of the Middle East."

Menachem Begin, right-wing Israeli pioneer:  "This is a moment of truth, a test of our capability to achieve peace."

I’m hopeful because I want to see a brighter and calmer future in the region. I want to take my kids to visit Israel and eat falafel without fear of rocket attacks. And I think it’s a good thing when young people, both Jews and Arabs, don’t have to grab RPGs and machine guns and go kill each other. Call me an optimist, but that sounds like a good week. Obviously, there’s a ton of history and bloodshed that I’m easily glossing over, but I’m talking about the present situation.

The pressure is on

The last four months were so spiritually and physically devastating, it’s no wonder that the pressure is now heavier than ever to change the paradigm. The calculus is different, but also very much the same. Frameworks have been shattered, and there’s a chance for new ones to spring up. 

I don’t know what that looks like. And I have no idea who will be making handshakes on the White House lawn, if ever. Even as an outsider, I wouldn’t fault any Israeli or Palestinian for rejecting the thought of a long-term peace deal. But maybe there’s room for a short one. Maybe people with clout and vision will use this dumpster fire of a situation and capitalize on it with courage and conviction. 

Don’t get too excited – I also think that likelihood is extremely low, like less than 10%. But hey, if it happens, wouldn’t that be the biggest surprise of all?

4 things right now

Do: Let your mind wander more.

Read: Hell World on Sora and the end of art.

Watch: We’re watching For all Mankind. It’s about space exploration. It’s like Mad Men meets NASA meets alternate reality.

Listen: I’m switching between books and podcasts and articles and need someway to organize all that information. I’m knee deep in everything. I love it.

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